Articles by John Halley
So here are some of the interesting articles that I have authored or co-authored. Click on the blue text to download.
Dynamics of forests under climate change. Which traits matter?
To cope with global warming, the majority of plants will have to migrate polewards. Which are best keeping pace, and which traits best explain migration potential in woody species? By analyzing changing tree distributions in Europe we quantified migration lag for each species. Contrary to our intuition that it would be tree longevity, we found that seed mass is the only trait that explains migration potential: trees with heavier seeds lag more.
Conservation through religion
Could religion have been a force for the preservation of our environment? Our research on the Sacred Groves of Epirus investigates how in the past the power of religious prohibitions acted to curb the rapacious appetites of some humans. Our latest work finds that 350 years of protected sacred status has left certain forests with a definite conservation gain.
Extinction biology of high fecundity organisms
Is high fecundity a protection against extinction in this new era of climatic change? You might think so but read on! In this recent paper in PLoS-1, we explain that if the environment is very variable, high-fecundity organisms may be the most vulnerable. In the evolutionary game what goes up must come down and all organisms with high fecundity endure a very large mortality.
Preaching for the planet or just spinning our wheels?
What happens when the unstoppable idea of economic growth hits the immovable ceiling of ecological capacity? You get Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich at war. Book review of The Bet: Paul Ehrlich, Julian Simon, and Our gamble over Earth’s Future by Paul Sabin.
So you want to stop devouring ecosystems? Do the math!
We need a more vegan-type diet (less meat, less dairy products). My article is found in Lisa Kemmerer’s book on the relationship between Environmental Protection and Animal Rights.
88. Halley J.M., Van Houtan K.S., Mantua, N. (2018). How survival curves affect population vulnerability to climate change. PloS one 13, no. 9 (2018): e0203124.
87. Avtzis DN, Stara K, Sgardeli V, Betsis A, Diamandis S, Healey JR, Kapsalis E, Kati V, Korakis G, Marini Govigli V, Monokrousos N, Muggia L, Nitsiakos V, Papadatou E, Papaioannou H, Rohrer A, Τsiakiris R, van Houtan KS, Vokou D, Wong J, Halley, JM. (2018). Quantifying the conservation value of Sacred Natural Sites. Biological Conservation 222 (2018): 95-103.
86. Halley, John M. Redefining the Heart of Conservation (Book review). Conservation Biology 32, no. 2 (2018): 501-504.
85. Phillips, H.R., Halley, J.M., Urbina-Cordona, J.N. and Purvis, A., 2017. The effect of fragment area on site‐level biodiversity. Ecography 41, no. 7 (2018): 1220-1231
84. Veresoglou, Stavros D., and John M. Halley. Seed mass predicts migration lag of European trees. Annals of Forest Science 75, no. 3 (2018): 86.
83. Newmark WD, Jenkins CN, Pimm SL, McNeally PB, Halley JM. Targeted habitat restoration can reduce extinction rates in fragmented forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2017 Sep 5;114(36):9635-40.
82. Halley, J.M., Monokrousos, N., Mazaris, A.D. and Vokou, D., 2017. Extinction debt in plant communities: where are we now? Journal of Vegetation Science, 28(3), pp.459-461.
81. Sgardeli V, Iwasa Y, Varvoglis H, Halley JM. A forecast for extinction debt in the presence of speciation. (2017) Journal of theoretical biology. 21;415:48-52.
80. Zografou, K., Wilson, R.J., Halley, J.M., Tzirkalli, E. and Kati, V. (2017). How are arthopod communities structured and why are they so diverse? Answers from Mediterranean mountains using hierarchical additive partitioning. Biodiversity and Conservation, 26(6), pp.1333-1351.
79. Tzortzaki AE, Vokou D, Halley JM. Campanula lingulata populations on Mt. Olympus, Greece: where’s the “abundant centre”? (2017). Journal of Biological Research-Thessaloniki. 2017 Jan 14;24(1):1.
78. Halley J.M., Monokrousos, N., Mazaris, A.D., Newmark, W.D. and Vokou D. (2016). Dynamics of extinction debt across five taxonomic groups. Nature Communications, 7: 12283.
77. Veresoglou, S. D., Rillig, M. C., Fraser, L.H. and Halley, J. M. (2016). The influence of net primary production on species-area relationships of grassland plants. New Phytologist, 1;211(2):382-5
76. Halley J.M., (2016). Preaching for the Planet or Just Spinning Our Wheels (Book review). Conservation Biology 30: 1137–1140. doi:10.1111/cobi.12761.
75. Sgardeli, V., Zografou, K., & Halley, J. M. (2016). Climate Change versus Ecological Drift: assessing 13 years of turnover in a butterfly community. Basic and Applied Ecology. 17(4):283-90.
74. Stara, K., Tsiakiris, R., Nitsiakos, V., & Halley, J. M. (2016). Religion and the Management of the Commons. The Sacred Forests of Epirus. In Biocultural Diversity in Europe (pp. 283-302). Springer International Publishing.
73. Halley, J. M. (2015). So you want to stop devouring ecosystems? Do the math! in Animals and the Environment: Advocacy, Activism, and the Quest for Common Ground, Ed. L. Kemmerer, Routledge, London, 151-162.
72. Veresoglou, S. D., Halley, J. M., & Rillig, M. C. (2015). Extinction risk of soil biota. Nature Communications, 6, 8862.
71. Damialis A., Vokou D., Gioulekas D., Halley J.M. (2015). Long-term trends in airborne fungal-spore concentrations: a comparison with pollen. Fungal Ecology 13: 150-156.
70. Van Houtan K.S., Halley J.M., Marks W. (2015). Terrestrial basking sea turtles are responding to spatio-temporal sea surface temperature patterns. Biology Letters 11: 20140744.
69. Damialis A., Mohammad A.B., Halley J.M., Gange A.C. Fungi in a changing world: growth rates may be elevated, but spore production will decrease in future climates. International Journal of Biometeorology. (in press)
68. Zografou K., Adamidis G.C., Grill A., Kati V., Wilson R.J., Willemse L., Halley J.M. Who flies first? – Habitat-specific phenological shifts of butterflies and orthopterans in the light of climate change: a methodological case study from south-east Mediterranean. Ecological entomology (in press)
67. Van Houtan, K. S., Halley, J. M., & Marks, W. (2015). Terrestrial basking sea turtles are responding to spatio-temporal sea surface temperature patterns. Biology letters, 11(1), 20140744.
66. Zakkak, S., Halley, J. M., Akriotis, T., & Kati, V. (2015). Lizards along an agricultural land abandonment gradient in Pindos Mountains, Greece. Amphibia-Reptilia, 36(3), 253-264.
65. Halley J.M., Sgardeli V., Triantis K.A. (2014) Extinction debt and the species–area relationship: a neutral perspective. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 23:113–123.
64. Sawidis T., Halley J.M., Llupo S., Bellos D., Veros D., Symeonidis L. (2014). Nickel and iron concentrations in plants from mining area Pogradec, Albania. Environmental Engineering and Management Journal 13: 861-871.
63. Xystrakis F., Kallimanis A.S., Dimopoulos P., Halley J.M., Koutsias N. (2014). Precipitation dominates fire occurrence in Greece (1900–2010): its dual role in fuel build-up and dryness. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 14: 21-32.
62. Zakkak S., Kakalis E., Radović A., Halley J.M., Kati V. (2014). The impact of forest encroachment after agricultural land abandonment on passerine bird communities: The case of Greece. Journal for Nature Conservation 22: 157-165.
61. Zografou K., Kati V, Grill A., Wilson R.J., Tzirkalli E., Pamperis L., Halley J.M. (2014). Signals of Climate Change in Butterfly Communities in a Mediterranean Protected Area. PLoS ONE 9: e87245.
60. Halley J.M., Iwasa Y., Vokou D. (2013). Extinction Debt and Windows of Conservation Opportunity in the Brazilian Amazon – Comment. Science 339: 271-c.
59. Halley JM, Sgardeli V, Monokrousos N. (2013). Species-area relationships and extinction forecasts. Annals of the New York Academy of Science 1286: 50-61.
58. Lovei, G.L., Lewinsohn T.M., et al. (2012). Megadiverse developing countries face huge risks from invasives. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 27: 2–3.
57. Halley J.M., Iwasa Y. (2012). Neutrality without incoherence: a response to Clark. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 27: 363.
56. Veresoglou S.D., Halley J.M. (2012) A model that explains diversity patterns of arbuscular mycorrhizas. Ecological Modelling 231:146–152.
55. Vokou D., Vareli K.., Zarali E., Karamanoli K., Constantinidou H.I.A., Halley J.M., Monokrousos N., Sainis I. (2012). Exploring biodiversity in the bacterial community of the Mediterranean phyllosphere and its relationship with airborne bacteria. Microbial Ecology 64: 714-724.
54. N Koutsias, M Arianoutsou, AS Kallimanis, G Mallinis, JM Halley, P Dimopoulos (2012), “Where did the fires burn in Peloponnisos, Greece the summer of 2007? Evidence for a synergy of fuel and weather”, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 156, 41-53
53. JM Halley, D Kugiumtzis (2011), “Nonparametric testing of variability and trend in some climatic records”, Climatic change, 1-20
52. KS Van Houtan, JM Halley (2011) “Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting” PloS one 6 (4), e19043
51. A Damialis, C Fotiou, JM Halley, D Vokou (2011), “Effects of environmental factors on pollen production in anemophilous woody species”, Trees-Structure and Function 25 (2), 253-264
50. JM Halley, Y Iwasa (2011), “Neutral theory as a predictor of avifaunal extinctions after habitat loss”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108 (6), 2316-2321
49. C Fotiou, A Damialis, N Krigas, JM Halley, D Vokou (2011), “Parietaria judaica flowering phenology, pollen production, viability and atmospheric circulation, and expansive ability in the urban environment: impacts of environmental factors”, International journal of biometeorology 55 (1), 35-50
48. V Kati, K Poirazidis, M Dufrêne, JM Halley, G Korakis, S Schindler, P Dimopoulos (2010), “Towards the use of ecological heterogeneity to design reserve networks: a case study from Dadia National Park, Greece”, Biodiversity and conservation 19 (6), 1585-1597
47. KS Van Houtan, JM Halley, R Van Aarde, SL Pimm (2009), “Achieving success with small, translocated mammal populations”, Conservation Letters 2 (6), 254-262
46. Halley J.M. (2009), “Using models with long-term persistence to interpret the rapid increase of Earth’s temperature”, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 388 (12), 2492-2502
45. AS Kallimanis, AD Mazaris, J Tzanopoulos, JM Halley, JD Pantis, SP Sgardelis (2008), “How Does Habitat Diversity Affect the Species-Area Relationship?”, Global Ecology and Biogeography 17, 532-538
44. Kallimanis A.S., Halley J.M., Vokou D. & Sgardelis S.P. (2008) The Scale of Analysis Determines the Spatial Pattern of Woody Species Diversity in the Mediterranean Environment. Plant Ecology 196, 143-151
43. Van Houtan K.S., Pimm S.L., Halley J.M., Bierregaard R.O. & Lovejoy T.E. (2007) Dispersal of Amazonian Birds in Continuous and Fragmented Forest. Ecology Letters 10, 219-229
42. Damialis A., Halley J.M., Gioulekas D. & Vokou D. (2007) Long-Term Trends in Atmospheric Pollen Levels in the City of Thessaloniki, Greece. Atmospheric Environment 41, 7011-7021
41. Halley, J.M., “How sampling resolution and scale affect the perceived redness of a time-series”in Vasseur, D. A., and McCann, K. S. (eds.) The impact of environmental variability on ecological systems. The Peter Yodzis Fundamental Ecology Series Vol 2. Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands. ISBN: 978-1-4020-5850-9
40. A.S. Kallimanis, W.E. Kunin, J.M. Halley and S.P. Sgardelis, “Patchy disturbance favours longer dispersal distance” Evolutionary Ecology Research, 8, 529-541 (2006).
39. Halley, J.M., “Comparing aquatic and terrestrial variability: On what scale do ecologists communicate?”, in “Bridging the Gap Between Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecology” Browman, H.I & Stergio u, K.I. (Eds) Theme Section Marine Ecology Progress Series, 304, 274-280 (2005).
38. Halley, J. M. & Stergiou, K.I., “The implications of increasing variability of fish landings”. Fish and Fisheries, 6, 266-276 (2005).
37. Matthiopoulos, J.M., Halley, J.M. and Moss, R., “The Social Hypothesis for Red Grouse Population Cycles Relies on Abrupt Transitions from Tolerant to Aggressive Behaviour”. Ecology 86 (7): 1883-1893, 2005.
36. Kosmidis, K., Argyrakis, P. & Halley, J.M., Language evolution and population dynamics in a system of two interacting species. Physica A, 353, 595-612, 2005.
35. Kallimanis, A, Kunin, W. Halley, J., and Sgardelis, S. “Metapopulation extinction risk under spatially autocorrelated disturbance”. Conservation Biology, 19, 1-13 (2), 2005.
34. Arntzen, J. W., Goudie, I., Halley, J. and Jehle, R. “Costs and benefits of marking techniques for long-term population studies”. Amphibia-Reptilia, 25, 305-315, 2004.
33. Yadav, R. K. P., Halley, J. M., Karamanoli, K., Constantinidou, H.-I. & Vokou, D., “Bacterial populations on the leaves of Mediterranean plants: quantitative features and testing of distribution models”. Environmental and Experimental Botany, 52, 63-77, 2004.
32. Halley, J. M., Hartley, S., Kallimanis, A.S., Kunin, W.E., Lennon, J.J., Sgardelis, S.P. (Review), “Uses and Abuses of Fractal Methodology in Ecology”. Ecology Letters, 7, 254-271, 2004.
31. Halley, J.M. & Inchausti, P. “The Increasing Importance of 1/f-noises as Models of Ecological Variability” (Review), Fluctuation and Noise Letters, 4, R1-R26, 2004.
30. Inchausti, P. and J.M. Halley, “On the relation between temporal variability and persistence time in animal populations”, J. Animal Ecol., 72, 899-908, 2003.
29. Vokou, D., Douvli, P. and Halley, J.M., “Effects of monoterpenoids and of their combinations on seed germination and seedling growth”, J. Chem. Ecol., 29 , 2281-2301, 2003.
28. Halley, J.M., “The initial-value spectrum of 1/f noise: Notes on its importance and its estimation”. Proceedings of ICNF 2003: the 17th International Conference on Noise and Fluctuations, Prague. Published by CNRL, Brno, Czech Republic. ISBN 80-239-1005-1.
27. Akçakaya, H.R., Halley J.M., and Inchausti, P., “Population-level mechanisms for reddened spectra in ecological time series”, J. Animal Ecol., 72, 698-702, 2003.
26. Halley, J.M. “Parameter drift stabilizes long-range extinction forecasts”. Ecol. Lett., 6, 392-397, 2003.
25. Inchausti, P. and Halley, J. “The long-term temporal variability and the spectral color of ecological time series” Evolutionary Ecology Research, 4, pp1-16, 2002.
24. Halley, J., and Inchausti, P. Lognormality in Ecological Time Series. Oikos 99, 518-530, 2002.
23. Kallimanis, A, Sgardelis, S. and Halley, J. “Accuracy of fractal dimension estimates for small samples of ecological distributions”. Landscape Ecology, 17, 281-297, 2002.
22. Halley, J.M., and Inchausti, P. 1/f noise: an appropriate stochastic process for ecology. ICNF 2001: Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Noise in Physical Systems and 1/f Fluctuations. Ed. G. Bosman, pp797-800, 2001. World Scientific, New Jersey.
21. G.J Blionis, J.M. Halley and D. Vokou. “Flowering Phenology of Campanula Species on Mt. Olympos, Greece”, Ecography, 24, pp. 696-706, 2001.
20. Inchausti P. and Halley J. “Investigating long-term ecological variability using the Global Population Dynamics Database”, Science 293, pp.655-657, 2001.
19. J. M. Halley and W. E. Kunin. “Extinction Risk and the 1/f Family of Noise Models”, Theor. Popul. Biol. 56, pp. 215-30, 1999.
18. D. Hewzulla, M.C. Boulter, M.J. Benton and J.M. Halley, “Evolutionary Patterns From Mass Originations and Mass Extinctions”, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 354, pp 463-69, 1999.
17. J.M. Halley and Y. Iwasa, “Extinction rate of a population under both demographic and environmental stochasticity”. Theor. Popul. Biol. 53, 1-15, 1998.
16. J. Halley, “Ecology, evolution and 1/f-noise”, Trends Ecol. Evolution, 11, pp. 33-37, 1996.
15. J. Halley and A.R. Hoelzel, “Simulation models of bottleneck events in natural populations”, in Molecular Genetic Approaches to Conservation, by T.B. Smith and R.K. Wayne (Eds.), Oxford University Press, New York, 1996.
14. J.M. Halley, C.H. Robinson, H.N. Comins and J. Dighton “Predicting straw decomposition by a four-species fungal community: a cellular automaton model”, J. Appl. Ecol., 33, pp. 493-507, 1996.
13. J.M. Halley, C.F.G. Thomas, P.C. Jepson, “A model of the spatial dynamics of linyphiid spiders in farmland”, J. Appl. Ecol., 33, pp. 471-492, 1996.
12. J.M. Halley, R.S. Oldham and J.W. Arntzen “Predicting the persistence of amphibian populations with the help of a spatial model”, J. Appl. Ecol., 33, pp. 455-470, 1996.
11. J.M. Halley and J.P. Dempster, “The spatial population dynamics of insects exploiting a patchy food resource III: A model study of local persistence”, J. Appl. Ecol., 33, pp. 439-454, 1996.
10. J.M. Halley and J.H. Lawton, “The JAEP ecology of farmland modelling initiative. Spatial models for farmland ecology”, J. Appl. Ecol., 33, pp. 435-438, 1996.
9. J.M. Halley, H.N. Comins, J.H. Lawton, M.P. Hassell, “Competition, succession and pattern in fungal communities: Towards a cellular automaton model”, Oikos, 70, pp. 435-442, 1994.
8. A.R. Hoelzel, J.M. Halley, C. Campagna, T. Arnbom, B. Le Boeuf, S.J. O’Brien, K. Ralls, G.A. Dover. “Elephant Seal Genetic Varition and the Use of Simulation Models to Investigate Historical Population Bottlenecks”, J. Heredity, 84, pp.443-449, 1993.
7. J.M. Halley, R. Manasse, “A Population dynamics model for annual plants subject to inbreeding depression”, Evolutionary Ecology, 7, pp. 15-24, 1993.
6. J.M. Halley, J. Midwinter, “Competitive instability in nonlinear Fabry-Perot etalons”, in IEEE J. Quantum Electron., 26, pp.348-360, 1990.
5. J.M. Halley, J. Midwinter, “Pixellation of optically bistable elements”, J. Optical and Quantum Electron., 21, pp. 191-203, 1989.
4. P. Bayvel, J.M. Halley, R. Kadiwar, I.P. Giles, “Theoretical and experimental investigation of an all-fibre Brillouin laser”, ECOC ’88, the Fourteenth European Conference on Optical Communication, 1988.
3. E. Abraham, J.M. Halley, “Some calculations of temperature profiles in thin films with laser heating”, Appl. Phys. A, 42, 279, 1987.
2. J.M. Halley, Midwinter, J., “Thermal analysis of optical elements and arrays on thick substrates with convection cooling”, J. Appl. Phys., 62, pp. 4055-4064, 1987.
1. J.M. Halley, J. Midwinter, “Thermo-optic bistable devices: theory of operation in freestanding films”, J. Optical and Quantum Electron, 18, pp. 57-72, 1986.